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How big could the GLP-1 activator market be?

There is a huge boom in the newfound 'GLP-1 supplements' industry, and New Zealander CaloCurb is taking advantage, seeing 400% to 600% growth per quarter. They are now in the middle of their fourth, and largest, human trial - but will strong clinical results be enough to capture the market?

Sarah Kennedy at home in New Zealand. Nearby, the Humulus lupulus (common hop), the main ingredient in Calocurb, is grown.

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Part of our CEO feature series for Vital Signs, published in Fortune on December 1, 2024.

What's the origin story of Calocurb?

In New Zealand, almost all primary research is government funded. In 2010, a team of scientists from the country’s largest research institute proposed that they could discover a natural, plant-based extract to suppress appetite. Their work focused on bitter foods, and was inspired by historical practices, using bitter plants to curb hunger. For example, Scottish Highlanders chewed bitter berries, and Kalahari tribesmen chewed bitter cactus to suppress appetite during hunts.

With a $20 million government grant, the team launched a project titled “Foods for Appetite Control.” They conducted 300 human biopsies along the gastrointestinal tract using colonoscopy and endoscopy. Their comprehensive mapping revealed the bitter taste receptors throughout the intestines, a breakthrough finding never documented before.

They hypothesized that when bitter compounds reach the intestines, they trigger the brain to release appetite-suppressing hormones—GLP-1, CCK, and PYY—signaling the body to stop eating. Bitter compounds in plants serve as an evolutionary mechanism to deter consumption and also humans eating bitter potentially toxic foods.

Using an intestinal cell model, they tested over a thousand plant extracts to see which would most effectively trigger the release of appetite-suppressing hormones. Most had little effect, but one stood out—a hop extract grown in New Zealand. They refined their research by testing 50 hop varieties to find the most potent one and determined the optimal dosage through in vitro studies.

In clinical trials, participants took the extract, later renamed Calocurb, in capsule form before meals. Results showed a 600% increase in GLP-1 and CCK, and 400% in PYY levels, double the usual hormonal response from eating. This super-stimulation of satiety hormones led to an 18.5% reduction in calorie intake.

When did you become CEO?

After developing a capsule based on the discovery, the team reached out to me in 2017 to explore commercialization. With my experience in natural health and nutraceuticals, I was impressed by the science and formed a company to bring the product to market. We raised capital, assembled a team, and launched Calocurb, licensing the technology from the government.

We conducted further clinical studies, starting with a trial on men to measure appetite reduction. In a 24-hour water-only fast, participants took Calocurb at the 16- and 20-hour marks, resulting in an 80% reduction in hunger due to the release of CCK, GLP-1 and PYY. We replicated the study in women and saw even more impressive results: a 100% decrease in hunger, a 120% decrease in cravings, and a 14.7% reduction in rebound eating.

We are now in the middle of our fourth, and largest, human trial in 2025: a $2 million investment. This independent, six-month study will involve 150 men and women, measuring various biomarkers, including weight loss. While we already have thousands of testimonials supporting weight loss, this trial will aim to provide the rigorous clinical evidence of Calocurb’ s weight loss efficacy we want to show the world. Our results are expected in the first half of 2025.

How large do you think the global market for natural GLP-1 supplements is?

The appetite for such products is immense. We're experiencing growth of 400% to 600% per quarter. We are well-positioned as a safe, effective, and affordable alternative to pharmaceuticals. Our safety profile is strong because our product targets only the gastrointestinal tract, with less than 1% entering the bloodstream. This means Calocurb doesn't affect the kidneys, liver, or other organs, and so Calocurb can generally be used alongside other treatments.

We are the only natural activator on the market, and we hold patents in the U.S., New Zealand, Australia, and Europe. There are no other products like ours: some may claim to activate appetite-suppressing hormones, but to affect behavioral change, you need to surpass 400% above baseline in hormone levels—we achieve over 600%.

In simple terms, how would you explain what Calocurb does?

Evolutionarily, our appetite is controlled by the hindbrain—a powerful mechanism designed to prevent starvation by increasing hunger when calorie intake drops. In today's world, where we're surrounded by readily available food, this mechanism can be a liability, making calorie reduction challenging.

By super-stimulating our natural appetite-suppressing hormones, Calocurb helps individuals navigate this modern world, where you are surrounded by food and fast calories. I’ve heard users of Calocurb say that it "takes the noise out of my brain," it allows them to stop obsessing over food and make healthier choices. It's not just about weight loss; it's about improving their daily lives by managing hunger and cravings more effectively.

Traditional methods which focus solely on diet and exercise often fail because they don't address the underlying hormonal drivers of hunger. By working with the body's natural processes, we offer a solution that aligns with how our bodies are designed to function.

Where is your commercial focus?

Our primary resources and efforts are currently devoted to the U.S. market - that’s where we see the greatest immediate potential. We are selling Calocurb both through healthcare practitioners and directly to consumers. To support our exponential growth, and opportunity, we’re currently undertaking a sizeable capital raise in the US.

Our production process begins in New Zealand, where we grow and extract the key ingredient in Calocurb. However, we manufacture in the U.S., utilizing patented capsule technology, and working in partnership with the largest capsule manufacturer in the country.

Additionally, we've received approval from Australia's Therapeutic Goods Administration. We'll be launching in Australia soon, and we’ll be the first new natural weight management product in the market there since 2014. In the latter half of 2025, we'll expand to the UK.

This industry is so dynamic, around 70 companies are working on GLP-1 agonists right now. Some are attempting to extend the duration of these treatments beyond a week, though maintaining high GLP-1 levels constantly may not be ideal. Others are focussed on developing oral modalities.

In the natural health sector, we're yet to see any innovation that’s comparable to Calocurb.

Our strategy is to continue leading in natural, science-backed solutions for weight management. Calocurb is all about working with the body's natural mechanisms to promote healthier eating patterns. Our clinical research should strengthen our market position, expand our global reach, and allow us to offer customers all over the world a viable alternative to synthetic pharmaceuticals.